Author's Note: Planned on spending some significant work time this afternoon (Friday) on this blog, but just found out I have to compete in a "100 beer race" tonight. That means I have to go do a bunch of pushups to get ready (long story on why pushups makes me ready to chug beer all night). So this may be abbreviated.
I'm also still tinkering w/ the timing of this blog each week. I thought doing it on Tues or Weds would be best while the week in review still matters to people, but then I miss out on commenting on Waiver pickups and I can't accurately predict how the next week will go. Catch 22 I suppose. Friday seems good because that's when people want to waste the day reading pointless bullshit anyway, right? Apologies to the East-coasters who will get this blog post after work has ended, thus having to use valuable non-work time reading it.
On to it...
As the world's most unbiased commissioner, it's only fair that I flog my own ass with the sticks of criticism like I do to all of you on a weekly basis. Specifically, my favorite thing to do is run a quote in this space from one of you 'tards claiming something ridiculous...like Fred claiming the 9ers are super bowl bound, or Fred claiming Travis Hafner would help his baseball team win the league this year. Basically anything Fred says is fair game.
Now it's only fair for me to tell you about the exchange I had w/ Fred last week. I'll paraphrase (though I'm sure at this exact moment Fred is looking through his Gchat archives to find my exact words).
Me: "You know, I'm so on fire in all my football picks this year. I think I understand the NFL better than I ever have, maybe better than anybody ever has. Maybe not fantasy, I'm pretty average there, but I'm killing it in Scott's pick 'em league, killing it in Bodog betting, and I'm pretty sure I've got the suicide pool all figured out."
Fred: "Sure, buddy."
Fast forward to the end of week 4 games and I'm staring at a painful loss in the suicide pool (fuck Indy, fuck Scobee's 59-yard FG, fuck everyone), a $9 loss on Bodog (doesn't sound bad, but I got used to winning $50/week earlier this season), and a very low score in the pick 'em league. Add in a 1-4 week in my 5 fantasy leagues, and you get the point. I know nothing.
And the silver lining...I can buy back into the Suicide pool (equal to lighting $36 on fire), the pick 'em league is 17 weeks long & I'm still in 1st (by a slim margin), if I double up the amount of all my bets this week on Bodog I'm sure to make my money back. No silver lining for fantasy, I blow.
Since it's Friday (and I lost again last week) I have no interest in doing a week 4 review. Except to say it was awesome to see Werner's team put up 50 total points, I once again dominated my predictions for this league...4-1 last week, 9-1 overall in my picks. And also, it's a guarantee that every time the Patriots play on National TV a few of us will pretend to pull off a blockbuster 3-team deal. This past Monday night it was me, Neil and Ben coming so close to having an agreement in place (still don't know who backed out ultimately), and Aaron dying to be the 4th team involved.
Look out for Nov. 14th, the next Pats' National TV game--I'm sure we'll come even closer to a monumental deal.
Final thought from week 4: I bet Blanchette is really wishing he moved Vick in a trade when he had the chance.
Moving on to week 5 preview/predictions:
Four 3 Year Olds vs. The Bink: In this marquee matchup of 2 teams who won't possibly crack 90 points, I've decided to sit a QB who's averaging 20.3 points/week (Rivers) in favor of one who's averaging 9.5 (Eli). I'm also starting Shonn Greene--projected for 4 points against a tough Minnesota run D. Throw in 3 mediocre WRs & 1 free agent TE, and I'm somehow projected to crush Scott's team by 16 points. Maybe that has something to do with Scott starting a WR (Garcon) who's projected not to play (shit, why am I writing this right now?). Good luck w/ Moss the rest of the way, Scott...total wildcard.
Prediction: my unnecessary tinkering with my lineup leads to another loss. Scott wins a close one.
Team 1818A vs. Polar Bears Rule: A battle of 2-2 teams who both think they are a lot better than they actually are. Some tough luck for Werner. You know that column "OPRK," which calculates some extremely tough math to come up with the Opponents' Rank? Well every starter for Werner's team is in the "red" in that column. Not good. And because of that, Fred's projected to win by 30 this week. Fred, on the other hand, has some good matchups, including the 2nd week in a row where 1 of his RBs gets to face a horrible Oakland running D. The biggest question in this matchup is whether Werner will start to blow the team up after falling to 2-3 this week. Can an AP or Chris Johnson trade revitalize this struggling team with multiple good pieces in return?
Prediction: Fred wins, but not by 30.
Team Preiss vs. Dorchester United: Two teams trying to avoid a Ross-like 1-4 record. You know my previous statement about Werner's team having all bad matchups this week? The exact opposite is true for MattyP's team. Except for Michael Turner @ Cleveland, every other Opponents' Rank is in green for this team. Ben couldn't be catching them at a worse time. Matty, since I have nothing critical to say about your starting lineup this week, can I just ask when you're going to cut ties with Vincent Jackson? After week 6? week 10? Offseason? There's gotta be someone in free agency who is a better bench-sitter. Ben, your team is projected to lose by 25; if we're to believe the ESPN projections, your team is absolute garbage...my only question to you: how excited are you that Big Ben finally plays next week? No one has been more interested in acquiring this guy in every league than you. Hope it works out.
Prediction: Preiss wins, Ben makes 3 more trades before week 6.
Quick side note: MoJo is projected for 26 this week. Most of the Buffalo & Jacksonville players are projected for career weeks when they play each other this Sunday. But if ESPN's projections are even close to accurate, the final score has gotta be roughly 77-73. Please let this happen.
JohnThomasMoynahan vs. Market & Crack: This has to feel like a playoff game for Blanchette because this is his first chance in like 5 years to be something significant in fantasy. If he wins, he starts to separate from the pack. If he loses, back to the mediocrity he knows all too well. Without even looking at Neil's team, sorry Matt, but you lose this week. You need to make like 5 roster moves between now & Sunday just to field a healthy team. Too many byes & a few injuries are going to derail you this week. Just looked at Neil's team now, and yup, big week coming up for the Market & Crackers...almost as many good matchups as MattyP's team.
Prediction: Neil wins w/ largest margin of victory for the week.
I'm also still tinkering w/ the timing of this blog each week. I thought doing it on Tues or Weds would be best while the week in review still matters to people, but then I miss out on commenting on Waiver pickups and I can't accurately predict how the next week will go. Catch 22 I suppose. Friday seems good because that's when people want to waste the day reading pointless bullshit anyway, right? Apologies to the East-coasters who will get this blog post after work has ended, thus having to use valuable non-work time reading it.
On to it...
As the world's most unbiased commissioner, it's only fair that I flog my own ass with the sticks of criticism like I do to all of you on a weekly basis. Specifically, my favorite thing to do is run a quote in this space from one of you 'tards claiming something ridiculous...like Fred claiming the 9ers are super bowl bound, or Fred claiming Travis Hafner would help his baseball team win the league this year. Basically anything Fred says is fair game.
Now it's only fair for me to tell you about the exchange I had w/ Fred last week. I'll paraphrase (though I'm sure at this exact moment Fred is looking through his Gchat archives to find my exact words).
Me: "You know, I'm so on fire in all my football picks this year. I think I understand the NFL better than I ever have, maybe better than anybody ever has. Maybe not fantasy, I'm pretty average there, but I'm killing it in Scott's pick 'em league, killing it in Bodog betting, and I'm pretty sure I've got the suicide pool all figured out."
Fred: "Sure, buddy."
Fast forward to the end of week 4 games and I'm staring at a painful loss in the suicide pool (fuck Indy, fuck Scobee's 59-yard FG, fuck everyone), a $9 loss on Bodog (doesn't sound bad, but I got used to winning $50/week earlier this season), and a very low score in the pick 'em league. Add in a 1-4 week in my 5 fantasy leagues, and you get the point. I know nothing.
And the silver lining...I can buy back into the Suicide pool (equal to lighting $36 on fire), the pick 'em league is 17 weeks long & I'm still in 1st (by a slim margin), if I double up the amount of all my bets this week on Bodog I'm sure to make my money back. No silver lining for fantasy, I blow.
Since it's Friday (and I lost again last week) I have no interest in doing a week 4 review. Except to say it was awesome to see Werner's team put up 50 total points, I once again dominated my predictions for this league...4-1 last week, 9-1 overall in my picks. And also, it's a guarantee that every time the Patriots play on National TV a few of us will pretend to pull off a blockbuster 3-team deal. This past Monday night it was me, Neil and Ben coming so close to having an agreement in place (still don't know who backed out ultimately), and Aaron dying to be the 4th team involved.
Look out for Nov. 14th, the next Pats' National TV game--I'm sure we'll come even closer to a monumental deal.
Final thought from week 4: I bet Blanchette is really wishing he moved Vick in a trade when he had the chance.
Moving on to week 5 preview/predictions:
Four 3 Year Olds vs. The Bink: In this marquee matchup of 2 teams who won't possibly crack 90 points, I've decided to sit a QB who's averaging 20.3 points/week (Rivers) in favor of one who's averaging 9.5 (Eli). I'm also starting Shonn Greene--projected for 4 points against a tough Minnesota run D. Throw in 3 mediocre WRs & 1 free agent TE, and I'm somehow projected to crush Scott's team by 16 points. Maybe that has something to do with Scott starting a WR (Garcon) who's projected not to play (shit, why am I writing this right now?). Good luck w/ Moss the rest of the way, Scott...total wildcard.
Prediction: my unnecessary tinkering with my lineup leads to another loss. Scott wins a close one.
Team 1818A vs. Polar Bears Rule: A battle of 2-2 teams who both think they are a lot better than they actually are. Some tough luck for Werner. You know that column "OPRK," which calculates some extremely tough math to come up with the Opponents' Rank? Well every starter for Werner's team is in the "red" in that column. Not good. And because of that, Fred's projected to win by 30 this week. Fred, on the other hand, has some good matchups, including the 2nd week in a row where 1 of his RBs gets to face a horrible Oakland running D. The biggest question in this matchup is whether Werner will start to blow the team up after falling to 2-3 this week. Can an AP or Chris Johnson trade revitalize this struggling team with multiple good pieces in return?
Prediction: Fred wins, but not by 30.
Team Preiss vs. Dorchester United: Two teams trying to avoid a Ross-like 1-4 record. You know my previous statement about Werner's team having all bad matchups this week? The exact opposite is true for MattyP's team. Except for Michael Turner @ Cleveland, every other Opponents' Rank is in green for this team. Ben couldn't be catching them at a worse time. Matty, since I have nothing critical to say about your starting lineup this week, can I just ask when you're going to cut ties with Vincent Jackson? After week 6? week 10? Offseason? There's gotta be someone in free agency who is a better bench-sitter. Ben, your team is projected to lose by 25; if we're to believe the ESPN projections, your team is absolute garbage...my only question to you: how excited are you that Big Ben finally plays next week? No one has been more interested in acquiring this guy in every league than you. Hope it works out.
Prediction: Preiss wins, Ben makes 3 more trades before week 6.
Quick side note: MoJo is projected for 26 this week. Most of the Buffalo & Jacksonville players are projected for career weeks when they play each other this Sunday. But if ESPN's projections are even close to accurate, the final score has gotta be roughly 77-73. Please let this happen.
JohnThomasMoynahan vs. Market & Crack: This has to feel like a playoff game for Blanchette because this is his first chance in like 5 years to be something significant in fantasy. If he wins, he starts to separate from the pack. If he loses, back to the mediocrity he knows all too well. Without even looking at Neil's team, sorry Matt, but you lose this week. You need to make like 5 roster moves between now & Sunday just to field a healthy team. Too many byes & a few injuries are going to derail you this week. Just looked at Neil's team now, and yup, big week coming up for the Market & Crackers...almost as many good matchups as MattyP's team.
Prediction: Neil wins w/ largest margin of victory for the week.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron will never have better matchups for every starting player than he does this week. Unbelievable...the QB & WRs are basically playing the worst pass D's in the league, and his RBs are playing the worst Run D's. And his D, the Bears, is at Carolina.
Prediction: Going with the minor upset - Pueto wins.
To recap, the winners are:
-Four 3 Year Olds
-Polar Bears
-Team Preiss
-Market & Crack
-Mother Flippin Pueto
-Ravens -7 (vs. Denver)
-Lions -3 (vs. St. Louis)
-Falcons -3 (@ Cleveland)
You're welcome.
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